USA Election 2024

My prediction is that Harris will win. This is mostly based on my distrust of polling and a mild trust in Lichtman’s system of thirteen keys.

I don’t trust polling because:

1. Polling is just a bad way to sample. Most people aren’t willing to be a part of the sample, so pollsters try to adjust for these people themselves. After altering based on pollsters methodology, they extrapolate over the population. The chance of error getting ballooned is really high here.
2. Many if not most pollsters have a political bias. Showing your party as winning is crucial to drive turnout otherwise you risk voter apathy and complacency.
3. Pollsters allegedly participate in “herding”. This means that is a particular pollster is getting results wildly different from other pollsters they will alter their model to come close to a other pollsters rather than publishing their results confidently. I was shocked to hear, but it made sense that pollsters cared about their bottom line and go for the “everyone got it wrong” approach rather than admitting “Oops, we got this one really wrong and we will do our best to rectify our strategies for the future.”

The keys method appears very subjective, but it has more meat than the senseless polling thats taking place today.